Trevor Gerszt

Trevor Gerszt has been passionate about gold since childhood. Growing up in South Africa, the world’s second largest gold producer, Gerszt spent his youth collecting gold coins. Surrounded by a family of experienced coin collectors, he gained valuable insight about the precious metal.

The phrase “quantitative easing” has been bandied about the world media as though it were some magic potient mysteriously concocted to rejuvenate the currency in each country that lays claim to a central bank.  Used most frequently in this country in conjunction with its companion letters “QE” (as in QE1, QE2 and QE3), the phrase seems also to suggest an elaborate shoe-fitting ceremony.  Read more...

When Bonds Return Less than Nothing

Sunday, 26 August 2012
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Behold the bond -- the traditional safe-haven proxy for gold!  At any given moment, if an investor had thought that the price of the yellow metal was unlikely to move up or, worse, might soon decline, he was more likely to put his money in bonds.  After all, why accumulate something you felt had a dim future?  Besides, a bond pays interest; there’s a rainbow before you – in the form of a guarantee or “yield” -- when a bond matures.  Now that’s all coming to an end. Read more...

Is Gold About To Take Off?

Wednesday, 22 August 2012
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As I write today, Gold has settled in to its new high since May 7 -- $1,643 –and the US dollar has dropped to a seven week low.  Significant buy stops were triggered, and a number of investors on the short side were forced out of the market.

While this is certainly good news for gold, analysts will be tightly focused on the 200-day moving average at $1,643.67 perched just above the current spot price.  For these same analysts to get really excited, gold will have to take out its next important resistance at $1,658.86, according to UBS Investment Research.  Still, it’s a promising sign that Gold futures have risen in five consecutive days and that the CRB Commodities index jumped by 1.37%.

Fiscal-Cliff

HSBC analyst Jim Steel points out that gold prices are also being supported by agriculture commodities on anxieties about a rise in food prices.  According to Steel, “corn prices hit a record high of $8.32 (USD) a bushel following the release of a weekly crop condition report from the Us Department of agriculture.” 

Additional encouraging news from gold comes from Reuters who reports that the Central Bank of Russia has added18.6 metric tons of gold to its reserves.  According to information from The International Monetary Fund, the Russian bank’s reserves now totals 853 metric tons. It should be noted too that reports of central bank holdings represent a good signal of support for gold prices if they drop.

Gold is also profiting from a favorable sentiment for commodities on expectation of an additional stimulus in China, and a more optimistic outlook for growth in the United States.  It’s stronger performance was also enhanced by the news that Greece’s bailout program may be allowed to continue.

UBS’s investment research report suggests that expectations of Q3 might already be built in to gold’s price, and that the current increase is merely a technical one.  If that’s the case, it seems reasonable to conclude that the actual announcement of Q3 might give gold an even greater steroid rush.  As I’ve previously suggested, the Fed is not without its hawks on the issue of quantitative easing, so investors are wary of making very large trades.  Still, professional eyes are fixed on the two-week period following the Fed FOMC meeting on August 31.

You do not need the precise judgment of a professional trader to make a profitable investment in gold right now on your own behalf.  Professionals look for profits in small movements in gold, and therefore many of their judgments have to be based on technical considerations.  It’s hard to go wrong buying gold at the current price for a long-term strategy.  You’re armed with enough historical information.  You know where gold’s been, you know how it can perform, and you’re certainly aware of many of the economic forces behind it.  Let the professionals and the crowds wait for a Fed Q3 decision.  Be your own central bank.  Start accumulating now.

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Will the Gold Standard Return?

Sunday, 19 August 2012
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Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney’s choice for his Vice Presidential running mate, holds some very strong opinions.  For starters, he wants to limit the powers of The Federal Reserve, especially its ability to print paper money at will.  Read more...

Stubborn Gold!

Friday, 17 August 2012
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The current price of gold is making some investors impatient.  Very impatient.  The yellow metal seems to be sleeping at the low 1600s without a sign of a higher price in the near future. Read more...

Gold: What a Boring Investment!

Wednesday, 15 August 2012
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Everybody wants to make money, right?  Yes, but investing should still be fun.  After all, who wants to endure a daily slog through a bunch of numbers and theories and not be able to enjoy themselves in the process? Read more...

Hedging, Hoarding or Capital Appreciation?

Monday, 13 August 2012
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While gold remains placid during these summer months ($1,620.9 per ounce as I write today’s column), it may be a good idea to settle back and ponder the percentage of your portfolio you should maintain in the yellow metal. Read more...

Gold on the Ropes, but Not Yet Down and Out

Friday, 10 August 2012
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Gold is straining investors’ patience.  It clings tightly to the ropes, but the referee hasn’t stopped the fight yet.  The Fed posturing of the last several months has failed to materialize into a third round of quantitative easing here in the states, an event we know will not only pull gold off the ropes, but will enable it to triumph.  The yellow metal has endured more than its share of blows to the solar plexus.  Read more...

Reassurance from the technicals

Tuesday, 07 August 2012
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Aficionado that you are, you’ve been diligently following the latest developments about gold while waiting for a positive sign.  You read and listen closely for Fed news because you’re reasonably sure the announcement of a new stimulus package will fuel the yellow metal and begin driving its price to new highs.  You stay on top of news from the European Central Bank because you realize that any orders to start the money presses on behalf of the weaker Euro member nations will represent an aggressive move up for gold.  Read more...

Stocks on Sale at Zero

Sunday, 05 August 2012
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What in heaven’s name is happening to America’s most cherished stocks?  Who’d have thought that Ford Motor Company – once a Wall Street darling – would now be trading between $9.12 and $9.19 per share?  And Citigroup at $28.03 per share on the New York Stock Exchange? C’mon – this is supposed to be a financial company – number 20 on The Fortune 500! Read more...