Gold Predictions - Silver Predictions | Goldco Direct

Predictions

One of the greatest challenges we face is predicting how high gold will eventually go against the dollar. Although the sky is the limit in the very long term, especially if we face hyperinflation, time is certainly a factor.

There are many resources at our disposal to aid us in our attempt to predict the future. And there are even more ways of interpreting the data at hand. Supply and demand are influenced by production costs, comparison ratios, industrial use, inflationary fiscal policies, market manipulation and a great deal of historical precedent, to name a few.

With such variation, it’s understandable that predictions are extremely varied. However, what doesn’t appear to be varied is that most who really study the metals markets predict some amazing prices in the future. With this in mind, we’ve compiled some of them for comparison.

GOLD

  • Don McAlvany - The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor (September, 2011)
    Expects to see $3500 to $5000 gold.

  • Jim Cramer for TheStreet.com - via Yahoo Finance (Nov 2011)
    "I want to own gold here. I think gold is going to $2,500 eighteen months from now (May, 2013)... Gold has been up for ten straight years and this going to be the 11th. Everything that is coming out of Europe is saying they're going to inflate to get growth... Everything coming out of China is chaos... Gold doesn't correlate with anything”

  • MacNeil Curry for Bank of America Merrill Lynch - BOAML Analyst Report (Dec 2011)
    "From a technical perspective we believe that the bull trend for gold remains intact… with gold having not yet met any of the conditions necessary for a top, we look for significant strength in the years ahead, ultimately targeting a top between $3,000 and $5,000 an ounce [in 2013-2014]. For 2012 gold will target $2,150-$2,200..."

  • Julien Garran - UBS – Bloomberg (December 2011)
    "[Gold] remains one of the top commodity picks for 2012 as 'most of the factors that pushed gold higher in 2011 are not going away,' according to UBS AG, which expects it to average $2,050 an ounce next year. 'So long as uncertainty abounds, gold has a fighting chance of outpacing many asset classes,' analysts including Julien Garran wrote in a report yesterday..."

  • Peter Richardson - Morgan Stanley – Bloomberg (November 2011)
    “Gold will lead a rally in commodities in 2012 as Europe's sovereign-debt crisis continues to roil financial markets, spurring demand for the metal as a haven asset, according to Morgan Stanley. "There's a very strong chance that gold will re-challenge successfully the all-time high," said Peter Richardson, chief metals economist at Morgan Stanley Australia Ltd., who has studied the metals markets for more than two decades. [Gold] may climb to a record $2,200 an ounce in the first half, he said... The euro-zone crisis shows no sign of being 'close to a resolution' and the contagion risk spreading across Europe is just the beginning..."

  • Nomura Research Team – Marketwatch (November 10, 2011)
    "Nomura has raised its forecast for gold prices to $2,000 an ounce by the end of 2012, from $1,800 earlier. The brokerage said the low-interest rate environment in the U.S., the European Central Bank's easing monetary policy and the Bank of England's second round of quantitative easing among the reasons for the precious metal's attractiveness as an inflation hedge."

  • Sharon Epperson – CNBC (December, 2011)
    "Gold will top $2,400 an ounce. The long-term bull market in gold marches on. Gold won't make a straight shot to a new inflation-adjusted high. As long as the real return on U.S. bonds is negative and other countries debase their own currencies, investors will turn to gold as an alternative currency and another form of protection against ongoing debt problems in developed and emerging nations."

  • Goldman Sachs Research Team – Proactiveinvestors (December, 2011)
    “Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts that gold's bull run will continue into 2012 with a low interest rate environment and continued Europe debt worries... The investment bank expects the gold price to remain at recent high levels, peaking at over $1,900 per ounce in 2012."

  • Frank Holmes – US Global Investors - TheStreet.com (December, 2011)
    "'People get so caught up with the next three minutes for gold and they should really be focused on the next three years,' says Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors. 'Does anyone really believe in the long term strength of the U.S. dollar?' Since 1975, the dollar has lost 75% of its purchasing power and 98% of its purchasing power compared with gold. 'We're just going to have to live with this volatility for another 12 months,' says Holmes, who still thinks gold prices could double to $3,600 an ounce in five years..."

  • Jeffrey Wright – Global Hunter Securities – TheStreet.com (December, 2011)
    "'What I am looking for is a gold price of $1,800 an ounce in 2012,' says Jeffrey Wright, senior research analyst at Global Hunter Securities. Wright says there could be spikes to $1,900 or $2,000, especially if gridlock in Congress brings up another budget battle and highlights the U.S.' own fiscal problems. 'Once we get back into those discussions, there will be further pressure on the U.S. dollar and a refocusing on gold as a safe haven asset.'"

  • Stephen Leeb – Leeb Capital Management – KingWorldNews (December 30, 2011)
    "I'll give you my target for gold at the end of 2012, it's going to be trading somewhere between $2,500 and $3,000. This correction, in other words, is a non-event. The rubber band analogy applies here, for every dollar down on gold, it will mean an extra dollar on the upside when we get the reversal. It's so important for investors that are not seasoned, it's so important not to get shaken out of your position here. And if you have extra money on the side, this is a great buying opportunity."

  • Citigroup Research Team – Zero Hedge (December, 2011)
    "While we remain cautious on Gold in the near term...we continue to believe that the bull market remains intact...we believe that 2012 may be reminiscent of 1978 when Gold rallied nearly 50% off the 1977 close. Such a move would likely put Gold in the $2,300-2,400 area in the 2nd half of 2012. On a longer term basis we expect even higher levels and target a move towards $3,400 over the next 2 years or so."

  • Leo Larkin – S&P Capital IQ – TheStreet.com (December, 2011)
    "Leo Larkin, metals and mining analyst at S&P Capital IQ, thinks that $1,900 gold might not be that much of a stretch [in 2012]. 'Gold has been going up without interruption for 10 years' and a correction is totally normal, Larkin says. Gold has risen on average 17% annually over the past 10 years, and while Larkin doesn't expect such a juicy return in 2012, he does expect the up-trend to continue. 'The United States' M2 supply is up 9% from the beginning of the year and the monetary base is up 30%. They are setting the stage for higher [gold] prices,' argues Larkin..."

  • Mike Obel – International Business Times (December 27, 2011)
    “Dealers in gold and silver coins expect higher prices next year, according to a poll released Tuesday by the Professional Numismatists Guild. “A poll of members resulted in gold price forecasts for the end of the first quarter 2012 ranging from a low of $1,475 per ounce to a high of $2,155, with a mean average of $1,759.57. Their estimates for gold at the end of 2012 varied from $1,450 up to $2,575 with the average $1,976.22.”

  • Anonymous hedge fund manager – Reported by Jonathan Buck, Barron’s (January, 26, 2012)
    “The fund manager, who wishes to remain anonymous, was unequivocal in his belief and was bullish on the longer-term outlook for the value of the precious metal: “Thousands of dollars per ounce,” he says. “Thousands.” By the end of 2012, he sees the price of gold at between $2,000 and $3,000 per ounce.”

  • Eric Sprott – Sprott Asset Management – KingWorldNews (January 25, 2012)
    “I’m sure gold is going north of $2,000 this year…”

  • Jim Sinclair – KingWorldNews (January 25, 2012)
    “Actions have consequences.  So this year is the year in which we are going to be experiencing the consequences.  $1,700 to $2,100 gold is a conservative range.”

  • Parsimony Investment Research – Seeking Alpha (January 29, 2012)
    “As we assess government and central bank responses to the global sovereign debt crisis, we remain bullish on gold and we believe that Gold will finally break $2,000 in 2012.”

  • Tim Iacono – Iacono Research – Seeking Alpha (January 30, 2012)
    “My thoughts are no different this year, however, one important distinction for 2012 is that I have gone on record saying the gold price will top the $2,000 mark at some point - a gain of nearly 28 percent from 2011 year-end - and I stand by that prediction.”

  • Egon von Greyerz in The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor (September, 2011)
    Taking paper derivatives into account (32 paper oz. for every 33 oz. traded), claimed that gold would be at $53,000 per ounce if all trading reverted back to actual physical gold. If gold reserves were at the same percentage of US debt as in 1913 (the advent of the Fed), “Gold would then be $27,000 today and going up to $33,000 in 2015 with a projected increase in debt of $6.5 trillion.” He noted that “in 1923 in the Weimar Republic, gold reached 100 trillion marks.”


SILVER

  • Philip Klapwijk – Thomson Reuters GFMS – Mineweb (November 17, 2011)
    “Philip Klapwijk Wednesday forecast an average silver price of $35.66 per ounce this year, a short-term forecast of $35-$40 through year-end, as well as a price above $50/oz by the end of 2012.”

  • Eric Sprott – Sprott Asset Management – KingWorldNews (January 25, 2012)
    “I’m of the feeling that it will go back through $50 this year.  Once it goes through $50 I think it could take on a whole new life and really energize itself.  Longer-term my target is 16 to 1 to gold and I’m very upbeat on gold.  I’m sure gold is going north of $2,000 this year, so obviously silver can get up to $150 in due course.”

  • David Morgan – Silver Investor (December 19, 2011)
    “I still believe silver prices will go above $50/oz in 2012. I forecast $65–75/oz silver by the end of 2012.”

  • Ryan Jordan – Financial Sense (April 19, 2011)
    “I realize few people bought or traded silver at 26 cents, as there were all sorts of difficulties involved in doing so and trading in silver was suspended in the US from 1934 to 1963. But nonetheless, the market price of silver went up nearly 200 TIMES in 48 years. From the market bottom in silver just under 4 dollars ten years ago, this means that silver would need to reach roughly 750 to 800 dollars just to equal its last bull market.”

    “According to this data, the monetary base in 1980 was around 140 billion dollars. Depending on what you believe the above ground amount of silver for investment was at the time (2-3 billion ounces), this means that at the old price high in silver of 50 dollars, the value of the world’s silver roughly equaled- if it did not exceed- the value of the U.S. monetary base. Today? The U.S. monetary base is over 2 trillion dollars, and yet there is less than half as much silver in the world. What would the market price of all silver for investment need to be to equal the U.S. monetary base? Between 2,000-2500 dollars an ounce, since there is roughly 1 billion ounces of silver coin and bullion.”

  • Jason Hommel – Silver Stock Report (June 18, 2004)
    “Today, a day's wage is up to $100 to $200 for skilled labor, let's say $150.  At $6/oz., that's 25 ounces of silver.  A silver dime contains .0715 of an ounce of silver.  25 / .0715 = 350.  I'm saying that if the world has a similar amount of silver as it did in the past, silver could rise by a factor of 350 times higher price than at $6/oz.  However, since silver is more scarce today than in the past, and since we have many industrial uses that are consuming silver that we did not have in the late 1800's, then I'm way more bullish than that.

    So, How High?

    I'm saying I'm way more bullish on silver than saying it can go 350 x $6, or $2100/oz.  I believe the price of silver will far exceed that due to the exhausted supplies, and the unrelenting massive industrial demand.”

  • Kurtis Hemmerling – Investing @ suite101 (January 4, 2011)
    “Provided that the price of gold maintained its $1,400 level, what are the extreme price highs that silver could see? In January, 1980 when silver prices shot up to well over $40, the ratio was roughly 14. Of course, this was an extreme climax top. Still, with current gold prices, how high silver go if panic buying ensues?

    $1,400 divided by 14 gives a silver price of $100 per ounce or over 3.5x current value

    “Also, many gold bugs feel that mania buying has not yet occurred. If gold prices were driven up to $2,500 per ounce – as some feel it will – then a 14 ratio would see silver prices over $178 per ounce. If gold reached $5,000 per ounce, this could lead to a historical silver price of $357 based on the extreme ratio of 14.”

  • Stephen Leeb – Leeb Capital Management – KingWorldNews (December 30, 2011)
    “Segueing into silver, silver is even better here. The Chinese have started to stockpile silver, sort of hidden in an announcement they made the other day. They are not going to export any silver. China is not going to export, according to their latest announcement, not even one ounce of silver.

    “So, if I were to target silver for the end of 2012, I’m going to be very, very conservative and say silver will finish 2012 at $60. It’s going to make new all-time highs.”

  • John Embry – Sprott Asset Management – KingWorldNews (November 8, 2011)
    “This paper market is a complete and utter sham and when the paper market it broken, and I think we’re close to that happening, silver will double overnight into the $60 to $70 area and that could happen within months.”

  • Mike Obel – International Business Times (December 27, 2011)
    “Dealers in gold and silver coins expect higher prices next year, according to a poll released Tuesday by the Professional Numismatists Guild.

    “Predictions about silver in the first quarter varied from $24.35 per ounce to $57.50 with a mean average of $34.04, and from$23 to $130 with the average of $48.73 by the end of 2012, said the guild, which is based in Temecula, Calif.”

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